Truth Verify: Did Earthquake Hit Mexico on Similar Date Three Occasions?

A robust earthquake hit western Mexico on Monday, main many individuals to worry that the date September 19 could also be an omen of catastrophe.

The magnitude 7.6 quake killed two folks in constructing collapses and induced harm to over 200 buildings within the Pacific coast state of Colima.

However is there a sample, as some have implied?

The Declare

Some observers level out that equally highly effective earthquakes have hit Mexico earlier than on this date, in 1985 and 2017. In addition they say that that is too spooky to be a coincidence, with September 19 apparently a cursed day for Mexico.

“It is this date, there’s one thing concerning the nineteenth,” Ernesto Lanzetta, a enterprise proprietor within the Cuauhtémoc borough of Mexico Metropolis, instructed The Guardian. “The nineteenth is a day to be feared.”

The latter two quakes are mentioned to have occurred solely minutes after the commemorative earthquake drill honoring these misplaced within the 1985 catastrophe. All three earthquakes are mentioned to have occurred at roughly the identical time within the early afternoon.

The Details

Highly effective earthquakes did certainly hit Mexico on September 19 in these three years: an 8.0 magnitude quake on September 19, 1985; a 7.1 magnitude one in 2017; and now this week’s quake.

In 2017, 370 folks have been killed, 228 of whom lived in Mexico Metropolis, and 6,000 have been injured. In 1985, the earthquake killed round 5,000 folks, injured about 30,000 and left 100,000 homeless.

This coincidence is certainly shocking: It had only a 0.00075 p.c likelihood of occurring, an knowledgeable instructed Bloomberg. Others speculated that the chance might be as little as 0.00000024 p.c.

A inventory picture exhibits the Mexican flag overlaid with an overview of the nation and an earthquake image. Mexico has been hit with earthquakes on September 19 in three totally different years, together with this week.
iStock / Getty Photos Plus

However this does not justify superstitious or paranormal explanations or figuring out purported patterns.

Earthquakes of those magnitudes or larger are comparatively widespread in Mexico. The nation is often affected by seismic exercise that stems from the motion of the North American plate in opposition to the Cocos and Pacific plates, making it an especially seismically energetic area.

Previously 10 years, Mexico noticed eight earthquakes with a magnitude over 7.0, a lot of which occurred in June, February, April and March. Actually, since 1900 solely eight Mexican earthquakes have occurred in September.

The three September 19 earthquakes didn’t happen on the identical time of day. This week’s quake hit at 1:05 p.m. native time. In 2017, it was 1:14 p.m. native time. The 1985 quake occurred at 7:17 a.m. native time.

With fixed seismic exercise all around the planet, coincidences are sure to happen. For instance, an earthquake in Liechtenstein—not sometimes a hub of seismic exercise—occurred throughout a parliamentary session discussing earthquake insurance coverage.

Regardless of current and important advances in seismology, precisely predicting earthquakes continues to be past the attain of scientists.

The U.S. Geological Survey web site says: “Neither the USGS nor another scientists have ever predicted a serious earthquake. We have no idea how, and we don’t anticipate to understand how any time within the foreseeable future.

“USGS scientists can solely calculate the chance {that a} important earthquake will happen (proven on our hazard mapping) in a selected space inside a sure variety of years.”

The Ruling

True.

True

Whereas it’s true that three earthquakes have struck Mexico on September 19, solely two had epicenters across the identical location, Mexico Metropolis.

Additionally, solely two occurred at across the identical time of day. There isn’t a scientific proof to recommend that the shared date is something greater than a easy coincidence.

FACT CHECK by Newsweek