Colin Allred’s Possibilities of Beating Ted Cruz in Texas Senate Election

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is on observe to safe reelection in November towards both of his top-polling Democratic rivals, in response to a brand new College of Houston ballot.

The survey discovered that, in a straight combat between Cruz and Rep. Colin Allred, the main Democratic candidate, the Republican incumbent would win by 9 factors. Alternatively, if Cruz faces Texas State Senator Roland Gutierrez, who can be operating to be the Democratic nominee, he would safe victory by 10 factors.

Newsweek contacted Senator Ted Cruz, Consultant Colin Allred and Texas state Senator Roland Gutierrez through e mail or on-line enquiry kind at 5:30 a.m. ET on Saturday. This text will likely be up to date if any of the three needs to remark.

The College of Houston’s Passion Faculty of Public Affairs surveyed 1,500 Texan registered voters on-line between January 11 and January 24. They discovered that, if the Democrats choose Allred, a member of the Home of Representatives and former NFL participant who has launched a Senate run, as their candidate for Cruz’s seat, the GOP incumbent will win with 48 p.c of the vote towards 39 p.c. One other 4 p.c would go to Libertarian Get together candidate Ted Brown, and 9 p.c undecided.

Alternatively, if the Democrats choose Gutierrez, a present member of the Texas state Senate who has additionally introduced his candidacy, Cruz will win by 48 p.c towards 38 p.c, with 4 p.c for Brown and 10 p.c undecided.

Amongst seemingly Democratic major voters, Rep. Allred has a powerful lead with 40 p.c of the vote, forward of state Sen. Gutierrez on 12 p.c and with no different candidate polling greater than 4 p.c.

Notably in a contest between Cruz and Allred, the Republican has a 16-point lead with seemingly male voters, at 52 p.c versus 36 p.c, however solely a two-point lead amongst seemingly feminine voters.

Cruz leads amongst seemingly white voters by 58 p.c towards 32 p.c for Allred, although the Democrat leads 41 to 37 p.c and 75 p.c to 10 p.c amongst Latino and Black voters respectively.

The ballot additionally discovered Allred and Cruz are tied amongst seemingly voters with a four-year or post-graduate diploma, whereas the Republican has a 58 p.c versus 32 p.c benefit for these whose highest degree of training is a high-school diploma or much less.

From left: U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) speaking to a reporter on January 17, 2022 in Southlake, Texas; and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) talking throughout a press convention on the U.S. Capitol Constructing on September…

Emil Lippe/Anna Moneymaker/GETTY

The College of Houston ballot is a considerable enchancment for Cruz from an Emerson Faculty survey launched earlier this month, which discovered the Republican incumbent close to degree both each of his predominant Democratic challengers.

This survey of 1,315 registered voters in Texas, carried out between January 13 and 15, put Cruz on 42 p.c towards 40 p.c for Allred in a hypothetical matchup between the 2. Alternatively, if Gutierrez secures the Democratic candidacy, Cruz would solely win by 41 p.c towards 40 p.c.

Political tensions in Texas have surged in current weeks over the best way to deal with irregular migration. Governor Greg Abbott mentioned the state is being topic to an “invasion” and invoked its “constitutional authority to defend and shield itself.” It got here after the Supreme Courtroom dominated federal brokers can reduce down razor wire positioned alongside the Texas-Mexico border at Abbott’s instruction on January 22.

Chatting with Newsweek, Daniel Miller, president of the pro-independence Texas Nationalist Motion, mentioned the border disaster is rising help for Texas breaking away from the Union, which he dubbed TEXIT.

Referring to a hypothetical independence referendum, Miller mentioned: “The present border problem has achieved two issues. First, it has turned a major variety of undecided voters into ‘sure’ voters. It appears to have additionally had the impact of activating a major variety of impartial voters and is pushing them to help a vote on TEXIT.”